Do Stars Matter? High School Rankings
The NFL Draft is this week. It is a goal that so many of our youth have, but honestly most will never achieve. This doesn’t mean they shouldn’t shoot for it, but it does mean that they must work extremely hard. It also means that parents will need to provide a great deal of support throughout the process. Additionally, parents will need to be informed and learn about the process to put their child into better positions. Throughout the draft and the following weeks amazing stories will appear about the players who made it against certain odds. I encourage you not to feed into the misinformation about the journey. Don’t focus on the exceptions that made it, but pay attention to the norms.
As they do every year, people will use social media to create a narrative about underrated players. Their goal is to discredit the star ranking systems. They will bring up every superstar that wasn’t a blue chip recruit. They will highlight all the kids from D2 or lower schools that get drafted and become superstars. And to all those players I say, “Congratulations!” Those stories are great to hear about. Keep in mind, they are stories worth telling because they are not the norm. All those players fought uphill battles.
They will quickly point out the quantity of players drafted or NFL superstars that were not Blue Chip recruits. They’d like you to believe that the high school ranking system is wrong. Although it may not be perfect, it is certainly more right than it is wrong about player projections. The star system is based on high school ability and performance. Rivals, 247, and ESPN rank 17-19 year old high school kids heading into college. All of those kids go through changes physically and mentally during college. Some even have growth spurts. When they are drafted as 20 – 23 year old young men obviously everything about them is not the exact same. However, the rankings system is still accurate about who has the better opportunity to make the NFL. Take a look at the table below regarding the 2020 NFL Draft.
Headlines and social media posts will inform you that most of the players drafted were 3 star players or below. Matter of fact, more unranked players were drafted than 5 star players. These stats are true but are entirely misleading without a breakdown of the star ranking system. You can make it without being ranked. That’s not the argument. However, the chances of that happening are much slimmer. When providing these stats they leave out the most important part.
There are about 800 times more recruits available coming out of high school than Blue Chip recruits. Each year the primary recruiting services only give about 30 HS seniors a 5 star rating. They give about 350 players a 4 star ranking. The 5 star and 4 star players make up the Blue Chip group. They are the most sought after recruits and those recruits have a huge impact on who plays for the National Championship each year. Recruiting services and college coaches view this group as the most game-ready when they step on campus. They also believe this group has the highest potential for an NFL future. Although this group is not the highest quantity drafted they are still correct.
Each year there are more than 250,000 HS Seniors playing football across the country. Only about 3,500 of those players receive some type of ranking. Being ranked is a special thing for HS players and should always be seen as an accomplishment. It does not define a player’s future, but the higher a player is ranked, the greater their opportunity. Blue Chip players make up less than %1 of all high school seniors and only 11% of all players ranked. Therefore, blue chip players should not be the majority of players drafted. There is a much greater chance for a player drafted to not be a blue chip player because of the quantity. While the quantity concept does stay true, the percentages is where parents and prospects should focus.
During the 2020 NFL Draft, despite only representing 36% of all drafted players, Blue Chip recruits made up 66% of 1st round draft picks. Additionally, Blue chip recruits were 80% of top 10 picks. Out of the 19 five star players drafted, six went in the first round. Blue Chip players not only get drafted at a higher rate. They get drafted early, which leads to better contracts. Parents and players should work hard for the blue chip status. Once again, it does not define a player but it does create better opportunity.
Over the past 5 seasons blue chips players have dominated the 1st round of the NFL Draft. The trends shown in the 7 round breakdown for 2020 are consistent. However, I couldn’t find it for each year so decided not to include. Now that you know that stars matter, the question then becomes how do you become a blue chip?
And I will be as honest with you as I am with my children. There are kids playing sports that are really talented. Some will make the league one day. Despite that, they have absolutely no chance to be a blue chip recruit coming out of high school. They can get ranked, but the Blue Chip spots are reserved for a select few. Those few often already have the measurables physically. When you break down film you can even find better players that are ranked lower. But when a high school kid is 6’4 225lbs and runs a 4.4 40 he’s going to be a 4 star or better. They will figure the rest out once he’s on campus.
Height and speed college coaches know they can’t control. They want kids that have it already because they can add size, change positions, and teach football. Of course scouts and colleges look at film also but I’ve sat in on meetings and heard recruiters speak. “We won’t offer any kid under 6’2 at Safety.” “We won’t take any offensive lineman under 300lbs.” Each school has their own skill sets they look for based on schemes so parents should also seek to learn about if school would even be interested in their child.
Be honest, if you’re kid isn’t on par with other Alabama recruits at his position. The University of Alabama- Birmingham and Tuskegee have football programs too. You don’t have to go D1, SEC, any of that! There are camps and combines kids can go to and compete against other ranked kids. There are ways to be seen in front of scouts and coaches. It’s a process I’m starting soon with my oldest and as we go through it I will share it all. Unless he has a growth spurt hew won’t be a Blue Chip himself. But I promise he will get a shot! Until next time, B U!
